Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Bold Prediction Time

Here is my bold prediction as of 8:15 this morning: Hillary will have won last night by about five delegates total, and she may yet lose Texas.

  • In Vermont, Obama gained 3.
  • In Rhode Island Hillary gained 5.
  • In Texas, the Office of the Secretary of State says Hillary is only up by four delegates in the primary, but remember there is also a caucus in this state, and I think the caucus (the results are still being tabulated) may reverse that "win" for a net delegate loss for Hillary in Texas.
  • In Ohio, Hillary appears to be up 8 delegates, but the provisional ballots (most of them from Cleveland) may narrow that a bit.

And when the dust settles, Obama will still be up 125 or more delegates (and I am not even going to mention the $50 million and 50 super delegate bomb that is rumored to be coming).

Wyoming (March 9) and Mississippi (March 11) are up next and both are expected to break to Obama. With Clinton up only 4-6 points in Pennsylvania, it''s hard to see how she she can get a win out of the remainder states, which are all divided or a loss for her.

Even if "old politics" still works, the "new math" doesn't.
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Note: I corrected this post to reflect the true delegate count in RI; my original source on this was wrong.

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