Tuesday Draw, But a String of Hillary Loss Ahead

Obama won Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, Kansas, Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Georgia and Utah, and he is leading in Missouri, while New Mexico remains too close to call.

As expected, Obama lost New York and Arkansas -- home states for Hillary, and though he also lost Massachusettes, New Jersey and California, he did so well in those states that the delegate loss is not going to be too bad and should be obviated by the wins in the next week -- Washington State, Louisisana, Nebraska, Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C.

Looking at delegates, the count so far is that Clinton won 471 delegates Tuesday to Obama's 437 (a difference of just 34), but the count is far from finished and some say Obama may end up winning more delegates than Hillary. We shall see. Since Obama was going in with more delegates than Hillary, and may pick up a few more delegates as results become clearer, and is certain to win six states in the week ahead, he should be a narrow front runner by this time next week.

While Hillary raised $13 million in January, Obama raises $32 million -- a clear sign that momentum and a ground war favor Obama, as does the rising number of women, whites and men who are voting for Obama. The only demographic group Hillary seems to "have" for now is Hispanics, and even here I expect Obama to begin to cut in quickly and deeply within the next few weeks.

Hillary is now calling for weekly debates, which is the kind of thing you do when you are short on money and cannot compete head-to-head in paid media with your opponent. It is not the kind of thing you do when you are winnnig.

Since no one reports the important races, let me do that: Hillary won the American Samoa caucus which had a record-shattering 285 caucus-goers. Clinton got 163 votes and Barack Obama 121 (one person voted for Mike Gravel), which means Hillary will get two caucus votes and Obama one. If you do not think this is important, then you are not Rudy Giuliani, who spent $50 million for his one caucus vote.
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