Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Close, Close, Close

The election today is going to be close. Very, very close.

Which means your votes counts. Get out there, pull a lever, take someone to the polls, email and call three others and ask them to do the same.

People die for democracy. We can at least participate in it.

When the dust settles, no one will be politically dead other than Mike Huckabee who suicided himself by talking about changing the Constitution to fit the Southern Baptist convention.

Moron. A nice moron who would be very fun to go fishing with, but if this is his campaign, best to avoid his presidency.

Romney looks to win in California, which will keep his hand in it.

As for Hillary, her lead has eroded like snow in June, and a knockout blow (what she was hoping for on Super Tuesday) is not going to happen.

Obama is doing too well in California (he may win it) and he is likely to win a lot of Southern and Western states as well, so by the end of the evening, I think the map will probably look pretty good for him.

My prediction: Obama wins California, Idaho, Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Kansas, Missouri, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota, Illinois, Alaska, and American Samoa. It's a toss up for New Jersey, Connecticut, New Mexico, and Massachusettes, but I think Obama will get about half either way it falls (as will Hillary). I think Hillary will win New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Arkansas and Arizona.

The good news for Obama is that in the week ahead Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, Virginia, D.C. and Maryland will do their bit, and I think Obama will win in all of these states. If so, the momentum will appear to have clearly slipped to Obama, and Hillary will be seen as beginning to fade.

Of course, I could be wrong, in which case, we can always ask Ann Coulter to speak in Hillary's behalf at the Democratic National Convention.



Update: There is no reason for Ann Coulter to be alone on stage to tell us about Jon McCain. Rush Limbaugh has said if the McCain is the nominee he would rather see the Democrats win the White House. "If I believe the country will suffer with either Hillary, Obama or McCain, I would just as soon the Democrats take the hit ... rather than a Republican causing the debacle. And I would prefer not to have conservative Republicans in the Congress paralyzed by having to support, out of party loyalty, a Republican president who is not conservative." Oh, OK, Rush. Thanks for your support.

Other possible keynote speakers for the Democrats if McCain wins: Rick Santorum, Bob Bennett, David Keene, Tom Delay, Hugh Hewitt, Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, George Voinovich, and Paul Weyrich who have all come out against McCain. Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) told The Washington Post that “the thought of [McCain] being president sends a cold chill down my spine."
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